{"id":11179,"date":"2022-05-12T10:00:12","date_gmt":"2022-05-12T02:00:12","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/?p=11179"},"modified":"2026-09-17T19:53:08","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T11:53:08","slug":"supply-chain-health-a-new-way-to-predict-credit-ratings","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/supply-chain-health-a-new-way-to-predict-credit-ratings\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u98a8\u96aa\uff1a\u9810\u6e2c\u4f01\u696d\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u5d84\u65b0\u65b9\u6cd5"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u5c0d\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u5982\u4f55\u878d\u8cc7\u53ca\u5176\u8cc7\u672c\u7d50\u69cb\u6709\u660e\u986f\u800c\u76f4\u63a5\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u8a55\u7d1a\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u901a\u5e38\u8f03\u53d7\u6295\u8cc7\u8005\u7684\u9752\u775e\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5011\u7684\u9055\u7d04\u98a8\u96aa\u8f03\u4f4e\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u88ab\u8a55\u4f30\u7684\u516c\u53f8\u90fd\u6703\u76e1\u529b\u722d\u53d6\u66f4\u9ad8\u7684\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u4ee5\u7372\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u878d\u8cc7\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7531\u65bc\u5b9a\u671f\u8b93\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u6a5f\u69cb\u5206\u6790\u5e2b\u9032\u884c\u8a55\u4f30\u4e4b\u6210\u672c\u9ad8\u6602\uff0c\u4e2d\u5c0f\u578b\u4f01\u696d\u5f80\u5f80\u672a\u80fd\u7372\u53d6\u8a55\u7d1a\u3002\u518d\u8005\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u5927\u90e8\u5206\u672a\u6709\u516c\u958b\u8ca1\u52d9\u5831\u544a\u3002\u6578\u64da\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7f3a\u4e4f\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u5747\u4e0d\u5229\u65bc\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u7372\u5f97\u878d\u8cc7\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u91dd\u5c0d\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u6b64\u4e00\u300c\u7f3a\u9677\u300d\uff0c\u7531\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u6587\u5927\u5b78\uff08\u4e2d\u5927\uff09\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u53ca\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\u5b78\u8005\u7d44\u6210\u7684\u4e00\u500b\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u958b\u767c\u51fa\u4e00\u7a2e\u53ef\u9760\u7a69\u5065\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u8b49\u660e\u5229\u7528\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u8cc7\u6599\u672c\u8eab\u53ef\u7528\u65bc\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c\u4e26\u6709\u8f03\u9ad8\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u3002\u5728\u9019\u500b\u65b9\u6cd5\u4e0b\uff0c\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u5408\u4f5c\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u6216\u5ba2\u6236\u82e5\u6709\u5b9a\u671f\u516c\u4f48\u8ca1\u52d9\u53ca\u71df\u904b\u8cc7\u6599\uff0c\u8a72\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u4fbf\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u5f97\u5230\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u7e7c\u800c\u6709\u66f4\u5927\u6a5f\u6703\u7372\u5f97\u689d\u6b3e\u8f03\u512a\u539a\u7684\u8cb8\u6b3e\u3002\u6b64\u4e00\u65b9\u6cd5\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u5c0d\u76e3\u7ba1\u6a5f\u69cb\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\uff0c\u4ee5\u81f3\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u878d\u8cc7\u5e73\u53f0\u7684\u6c7a\u7b56\u7522\u751f\u4e00\u5b9a\u5f71\u97ff\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u70ba\u4f55\u5b78\u8005\u5011\u5728\u7814\u7a76\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c\u6642\u9078\u64c7\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u56e0\u7d20\uff1f\u4e2d\u5927\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u6c7a\u7b56\u79d1\u5b78\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/wu-jing\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5433\u9756<\/a>\u89e3\u91cb\uff0c\u8fd1\u5e74\u4f86\u5df2\u6709\u4e0d\u5c11\u7814\u7a76\u63a2\u8a0e\u4e86<a href=\"https:\/\/pubsonline.informs.org\/doi\/10.1287\/mnsc.2021.4174\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u4e0a\u7684\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34\u5c0d\u4f01\u696d\u8ca1\u52d9\u5065\u5eb7\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u5f71\u97ff<\/a>\u3002<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11184\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11184\" style=\"width: 1254px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-11184 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-1.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1254\" height=\"836\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-1.jpeg 1254w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-1-600x400.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-1-1200x800.jpeg 1200w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-1-768x512.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1254px) 100vw, 1254px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11184\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u6c92\u6709\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u5927\u591a\u6578\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u4e0d\u516c\u958b\u767c\u5e03\u8ca1\u52d9\u5831\u8868\uff0c\u9019\u4f7f\u5f97\u5b83\u5011\u5728\u7372\u5f97\u878d\u8cc7\u65b9\u9762\u8655\u65bc\u4e0d\u5229\u5730\u4f4d\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u5433\u6559\u6388\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u5df2\u770b\u5230\u4f01\u696d\u7834\u7522\u6703\u5c0d\u5176\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u7684\u80a1\u50f9\u7522\u751f\u8ca0\u9762\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u6211\u5011\u4e5f\u770b\u5230\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u7684\u8868\u73fe\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u7684\u8cc7\u7522\u50f9\u683c\u3002\u4e0d\u50c5\u5982\u6b64\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u4e0a\u4e0b\u6e38\u4f01\u696d\u6240\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u8b8a\u5316\u4ea6\u6703\u4e92\u70ba\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u7531\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u60f3\u50cf\uff0c\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u4e0a\u7684\u6240\u6709\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u90fd\u80fd\u5f71\u97ff\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u5118\u7ba1\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u7a0b\u5ea6\u5404\u6709\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u5584\u7528<\/strong><strong>\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2<\/strong><strong>\u6280\u8853<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u5c0d\u4e00\u5bb6\u516c\u53f8\u9032\u884c\u5206\u6790\u4e26\u7d66\u4e88\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u904e\u7a0b\u8cbb\u6642\u8cbb\u529b\uff0c\u9700\u8981\u6295\u5165\u5927\u91cf\u4eba\u529b\u53ca\u8cc7\u6e90\uff0c\u9019\u56e0\u800c\u8b8a\u6210\u4e86\u53ea\u6709\u5927\u516c\u53f8\u624d\u80fd\u8ca0\u64d4\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u5de5\u5177\u3002\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u3001\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u7b49\u79d1\u6280\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u6709\u671b\u80fd\u626d\u8f49\u5c40\u9762\uff0c\u5851\u9020\u66f4\u516c\u5e73\u7684\u7af6\u722d\u74b0\u5883\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5728\u65b0\u4e00\u9805\u984c\u70ba\u300a<a href=\"https:\/\/papers.ssrn.com\/sol3\/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3951507\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5229\u7528\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u9810\u6e2c\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\uff1a\u4e00\u7a2e\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5<\/a>\u300b\u4e4b\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u5433\u6559\u6388\u806f\u540c\u7cfb\u4e3b\u4efb<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/zhou-sean-xiang\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5468\u7fd4<\/a>\u6559\u6388\u3001\u528d\u6a4b\u5927\u5b78\u7d93\u6fdf\u7cfb\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5f35\u5146\u6210\uff0c\u901a\u904e\u904b\u7528\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u7d50\u5408\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u958b\u767c\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u9810\u6e2c\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u7684\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u6a21\u578b\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u300c\u6700\u8fd1\u767c\u8868\u7684\u7d93\u6fdf\u3001\u91d1\u878d\u5b78\u8853\u6587\u737b\u5df2\u8b49\u660e\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u80fd\u975e\u5e38\u6709\u6548\u5730\u89e3\u6c7a\u9810\u6e2c\u65b9\u9762\u7684\u554f\u984c\uff0c\u300d\u5468\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\u3002\u300c\u900f\u904e\u5229\u7528\u6a5f\u5668\u5b78\u7fd2\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u53bb\u5206\u6790\u8207\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u6709\u95dc\u7684\u516c\u958b\u6578\u64da\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u7684\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u986f\u8457\u5730\u63d0\u9ad8\u4fe1\u4f01\u696d\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u503c\u5f97\u6ce8\u610f\u7684\u662f\uff0c\u9019\u7a2e\u65b9\u6cd5\u80fd\u7528\u4f5c\u8a55\u4f30\u5927\u91cf\u672a\u6709\u516c\u958b\u8ca1\u52d9\u53ca\u696d\u52d9\u8cc7\u6599\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u4e4b\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u80fd\u5920\u501f\u52a9\u516c\u6709\u9818\u57df\u4e2d\u73fe\u5b58\u6709\u95dc\u9019\u4e9b\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9b\u61c9\u5546\u53ca\u5ba2\u6236\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u9032\u884c\u5206\u6790\u3002<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_11186\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-11186\" style=\"width: 1254px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" class=\"wp-image-11186 size-full\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-2.jpeg\" alt=\"\" width=\"1254\" height=\"837\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-2.jpeg 1254w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-2-600x400.jpeg 600w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-2-1200x801.jpeg 1200w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/credit-rating-2-768x513.jpeg 768w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1254px) 100vw, 1254px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-11186\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u958b\u767c\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\u901a\u904e\u5229\u7528\u5176\u4e3b\u8981\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u5408\u4f5c\u5925\u4f34\u7684\u8ca1\u52d9\u548c\u904b\u71df\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5411\u76e3\u7ba1\u6a5f\u69cb\u7684\u62ab\u9732\uff0c\u4f86\u8a55\u4f30\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u696d\u7684\u4fe1\u8cb8\u8a55\u7d1a\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u5468\u6559\u6388\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u7531\u65bc\u4e2d\u5c0f\u4f01\u8ca1\u52d9\u4e0a\u4e00\u822c\u6bd4\u8f03\u7dca\u7d40\uff0c\u4e14\u4f9d\u8cf4\u5c0d\u5916\u878d\u8cc7\u4f86\u7dad\u6301\u71df\u904b\uff0c\u80fd\u4ee5\u975e\u50b3\u7d71\u65b9\u5f0f\u4f7f\u5b83\u5011\u7372\u5f97\u4fe1\u8ca8\u8a55\u7d1a\uff0c\u5c07\u6709\u52a9\u5b83\u5011\u66f4\u5bb9\u6613\u5730\u7c4c\u96c6\u8cc7\u91d1\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u5468\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u7576\u9019\u4e9b\u4f01\u696d\u91d0\u6e05\u4e86\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u56e0\u7d20\u5982\u4f55\u5f71\u97ff\u5176\u8a55\u7d1a\u5f8c\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u4fbf\u53ef\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u8abf\u6574\u904b\u71df\u7b56\u7565\u53ca\u4f9b\u61c9\u93c8\u7684\u90e8\u7f72\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u8a55\u7d1a\u3002<\/p>\n<h3><strong>\u9ad8\u5ea6<\/strong><strong>\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u6027<\/strong><\/h3>\n<p>\u662f\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\u63a1\u7528\u4e861,134\u5bb6\u4f86\u81ea\u7f8e\u570b\u7684\u975e\u91d1\u878d\u516c\u53f82004\u5e74\u81f32019\u5e74\u9593\u7684\u8cc7\u6599\u4f5c\u5206\u6790\u3002\u6709\u95dc\u8cc7\u6599\u4e3b\u8981\u4f86\u81eaComputstat\u8cc7\u6599\u5eab\u5167\u7684\u4f01\u696d\u5e74\u5831\uff08Form 10-K\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u91d1\u878d\u6578\u64da\u516c\u53f8FactSet 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