{"id":3021,"date":"2019-03-19T10:40:43","date_gmt":"2019-03-19T02:40:43","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/?p=3021"},"modified":"2026-09-17T19:58:47","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T11:58:47","slug":"artificial-intelligence-wont-solve-everything-tc","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/artificial-intelligence-wont-solve-everything-tc\/","title":{"rendered":"\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\uff08AI\uff09\u5df2\u88ab\u5ee3\u6cdb\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u4e0d\u540c\u9818\u57df\uff0c\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u907f\u514d\u7684\uff0c\u6703\u5c0d\u4e0d\u5c11\u884c\u696d\u9020\u6210\u885d\u64ca\u3002AI\u9019\u500b\u540d\u8a5e\u65bc<a href=\"https:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/gilpress\/2016\/12\/30\/a-very-short-history-of-artificial-intelligence-ai\/#5f43f7856fba\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">1955\u5e74\u7531\u7f8e\u570b\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u5275\u9020<\/a>\uff0c\u7528\u4f86\u63cf\u8ff0\u4e00\u9580\u65b0\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u79d1\u5b78\u3002\u6642\u81f3\u4eca\u65e5\uff0cAI\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u878d\u5165\u6211\u5011\u7684\u65e5\u5e38\u751f\u6d3b\u4e4b\u4e2d\uff0c\u6bd4\u65b9\u8aaa\uff0c\u7576\u4f60\u62ff\u8d77\u667a\u80fd\u624b\u6a5f\u8207Siri\uff08\u4e00\u6b3e\u5167\u5efa\u5728\u860b\u679ciOS\u7cfb\u7edf\u4e2d\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd\u52a9\u7406\u8edf\u4ef6\uff09\u4ea4\u8ac7\u6642\uff0c\u80cc\u5f8c\u5176\u5be6\u662fAI\u6b63\u5728\u904b\u4f5c\uff1b\u4f7f\u7528Amazon\u4e0a\u7684\u5ba2\u6236\u670d\u52d9\u804a\u5929\u6a5f\u5668\u4eba\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u662f\u7531AI\u6280\u8853\u63d0\u4f9b\u670d\u52d9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7121\u8ad6\u6211\u5011\u4eab\u53d7AI\u6280\u8853\u5e36\u4f86\u7684\u4fbf\u5229\uff0c\u9084\u662f\u6182\u5fc3\u81ea\u5df1\u7684\u8077\u4f4d\u6703\u88abAI\u6436\u8d70\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u90fd\u7121\u6cd5\u963b\u6b62AI\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u6b65\u4f10\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7fAI\u7121\u8655\u4e0d\u5728\uff0c\u4f46\u5b83\u4e26\u975e\u842c\u80fd\uff0c\u81f3\u5c11\u76ee\u524d\u5c1a\u672a\u80fd\u9054\u5230\u7121\u6240\u4e0d\u80fd\u7684\u5730\u6b65\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u5927\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u526f\u9662\u9577\uff08\u5275\u65b0\uff09\u517c\u6c7a\u7b56\u79d1\u5b78\u8207\u4f01\u696d\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u7cfb\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/zhang-michael-xiaoquan\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u5f35\u66c9\u6cc9<\/a>\u6307\u51fa\uff0cAI\u5728\u8a08\u7b97\u6a5f\u79d1\u5b78\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\uff0c\u5176\u5be6\u6709\u5225\u65bc\u5176\u5728\u7d93\u6fdf\u4e2d\u7684\u61c9\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8aaa\uff1a\u300c\u96fb\u8166\u79d1\u5b78\u5bb6\u548c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5c0d\u5404\u7a2e\u5275\u65b0\u6280\u8853\u7684\u770b\u6cd5\u53ef\u8b02\u5357\u8f45\u5317\u8f4d\uff0c\u800c\u76ee\u524dAI\u8f03\u7d93\u5e38\u61c9\u7528\u65bc\u9810\u6e2c\u548c\u5206\u985e\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u91cd\u9ede\u662f\u5c0b\u627e\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u89e3\u91cb\u4e8b\u7269\u7684\u5e95\u860a\u3002\u300d\u4ed6\u88dc\u5145\u6307\uff0c\u5982\u679c\u7d93\u6fdf\u5b78\u5bb6\u5efa\u7acb\u7684\u4e00\u4e9b\u6578\u64da\u5206\u6790\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u5920\u548cAI\u7d50\u5408\u8d77\u4f86\uff0c\u5c07\u6703\u7522\u751f\u4e00\u4e9b\u6709\u50f9\u503c\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n<h3>\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u4e8b\u4ef6<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u5f88\u96e3\u4ecb\u5b9a\u56e0\u679c\u95dc\u4fc2\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u7528\u4e0a\u4e86\u8907\u96dc\u7684\u91d1\u878d\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ecd\u7136\u6703\u767c\u751f\u610f\u6599\u4e4b\u5916\u7684\u4e8b\u60c5\uff1b\u56e0\u6b64\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8a8d\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u4e0d\u61c9\u8a72\u5047\u8a2dAI\u53ef\u4ee5\u89e3\u6c7a\u4efb\u4f55\u554f\u984c\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u91d1\u878d\u9818\u57df\u5b58\u5728\u4e0d\u540c\u7a0b\u5ea6\u7684\u98a8\u96aa\uff0c\u5728\u8a73\u7d30\u89e3\u69cb\u6ce2\u52d5\u6027\u7684\u6642\u5019\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u5c31\u5df2\u7d93\u5047\u8a2d\u4e86\u7279\u5b9a\u7684\u6216\u7136\u7387\u5206\u5e03\uff1b\u4f46\u5728\u8a31\u591a\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u80a1\u5e02\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u53ef\u80fd\u77e5\u9053\u91d1\u878d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6216\u7136\u7387\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u5f15\u7528\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u4f8b\u5b50\uff0c\u5c31\u662f<a href=\"http:\/\/clsbluesky.law.columbia.edu\/2018\/09\/10\/a-retrospective-on-the-demise-of-long-term-capital-management\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9577\u671f\u8cc7\u672c\u7ba1\u7406\u516c\u53f8\uff08LTCM\uff09\u53ca\u5176\u57fa\u91d1\u5728\u4e0a\u4e16\u7d00\u4e5d\u5341\u5e74\u4ee3\u672b\u9304\u5f97\u5de8\u984d\u8667\u640d<\/a>\uff0c\u5c0e\u81f4\u7f8e\u570b\u806f\u5132\u5c40\u51fa\u9762\u5b89\u639216\u5bb6\u91d1\u878d\u6a5f\u69cb\u806f\u624b\u5411\u5176\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e8636\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u7684\u63f4\u52a9\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u9019\u6b21LTCM\u4e8b\u4ef6\u548c\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u4e2d\u7684\u5176\u4ed6\u610f\u5916\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u4f8b\u59822008\u5e74\u91d1\u878d\u5371\u6a5f\uff0c\u88ab\u7a31\u70ba\u300c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.investopedia.com\/terms\/b\/blackswan.asp\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d<\/a>\u300d\u4e8b\u4ef6\uff0c\u5b83\u5011\u90fd\u662f\u96a8\u6a5f\u4e14\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u50b3\u7d71\u98a8\u96aa\u5206\u6790\u5957\u8def\u5047\u8a2d\u5404\u500b\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6216\u7136\u7387\u4e92\u76f8\u7368\u7acb\uff0c\u4e14\u76f8\u540c\u5730\u5206\u5e03\u3002\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8a8d\u70ba\u9019\u7a2e\u50b3\u7d71\u5957\u8def\u7121\u6cd5\u6709\u6548\u5730\u89e3\u91cb\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u82e5\u4e0d\u6539\u8b8a\u6709\u95dc\u5957\u8def\uff0c\u7e31\u4f7f\u904b\u7528AI\u4f86\u9810\u6e2c\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e5f\u53ea\u6703\u5f92\u52de\u7121\u529f\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u793e\u6703\u884c\u70ba\u4e0d\u53d7\u7269\u7406\u6cd5\u5247\u6240\u898f\u9650\uff0c\u5728\u8a31\u591a\u73fe\u5be6\u751f\u6d3b\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u4e0d\u77e5\u9053\u4e8b\u4ef6\u767c\u751f\u7684\u6216\u7136\u7387\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u5728\u793e\u6703\u79d1\u5b78\u7684\u7bc4\u7587\u5167\uff0c\u9664\u4e86\u7d50\u679c\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u98a8\u96aa\uff09\uff0c\u6c7a\u7b56\u5de5\u4f5c\u4ea6\u5e38\u5e38\u9762\u5c0d\u7740\u5206\u5e03\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff08\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\uff09\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u5f9e\u4ed6\u7684\u89c0\u9ede\u4f86\u770b\uff0c\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e4b\u6240\u4ee5\u51fa\u4eba\u610f\u8868\uff0c\u53ea\u56e0\u70ba\u904e\u53bb\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u5ffd\u8996\u4e86\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u5c0d\u91d1\u878d\u5e02\u5834\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u3002\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u5728\u984c\u70ba\u300a\u5177\u6709\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u7684\u7d71\u8a08\u63a8\u65b7\u300b\u7684\u8ad6\u6587\u4e2d\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u9019\u500b\u6982\u5ff5\uff0c\u5176\u4e2d\u4ed6\u63d0\u51fa\u4e86\u4e00\u500b\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u5c07\u7d71\u8a08\u63a8\u65b7\u4e2d\u7684\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u7d0d\u5165\u4e86\u5c0d\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4ed6\u89e3\u91cb\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u628a\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u7d0d\u5165\u8003\u616e\u5f8c\uff0c\u5c0e\u51fa\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u660e\u986f\u5927\u65bc\u50c5\u8003\u616e\u5230\u98a8\u96aa\u6642\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u3002\u76f8\u5c0d\u65bc\u98a8\u96aa\u884d\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\uff0c\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u884d\u751f\u7684\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4ee5\u66f4\u5feb\u7684\u901f\u5ea6\u589e\u9577\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u7576\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u4f54\u4e3b\u5c0e\u5730\u4f4d\u6642\uff0c\u5148\u524d\u88ab\u5426\u5b9a\u7684\u5047\u8a2d\u4fbf\u6703\u8b8a\u5f97\u4e0d\u5bb9\u5426\u5b9a\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<p>\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u4f7f\u7528\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\uff0c\u986f\u793a\u5373\u4f7f\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u53ea\u662f\u6eab\u548c\u5730\u589e\u52a0\uff0c\u7f6e\u4fe1\u6c34\u5e73\u4e5f\u6703\u5f9e95%\u5927\u5e45\u4e0b\u964d\u523050%\u3002\u9019\u89e3\u91cb\u4e86\u70ba\u751a\u9ebc\u5373\u4f7f\u767c\u751f\u9ed1\u5929\u9d5d\u4e8b\u4ef6\u7684\u6216\u7136\u7387\u975e\u5e38\u5c0f\uff0c\u4f46\u4e8b\u4ef6\u4e5f\u771f\u6b63\u767c\u751f\u4e86\u3002\u4ee5\u9019\u500b\u7406\u8ad6\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\uff0c\u4e0b\u4e00\u6b65\u5c31\u662f\u627e\u51fa\u6a21\u7cca\u6027\u7684\u6e2c\u91cf\uff0c\u9019\u5c31\u662fAI\u7684\u5927\u6d3e\u7528\u5834\u7684\u6642\u5019\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u89e3\u91cb\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u6211\u5011\u53ef\u4ee5\u4f7f\u7528AI\u6280\u8853\u4f86\u78ba\u5b9a\u57fa\u790e\u5206\u5e03\u6703\u5426\u767c\u751f\u8b8a\u5316\u3002\u5982\u679c\u6211\u5011\u80fd\u5920\u8b58\u5225\u9019\u500b\u8b8a\u5316\uff0c\u5c31\u77e5\u9053\u6211\u5011\u9700\u8981\u4fee\u8a02\u9019\u500b\u57fa\u790e\u6a21\u578b\u3002\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u6211\u5011\u6b63\u5728\u5617\u8a66\u5229\u7528\u4ee5AI\u70ba\u57fa\u790e\u7684\u904b\u7b97\u6cd5\u4f86\u5f97\u51fa\u6e2c\u91cf\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n<blockquote><p>\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c07\u4f86\uff0c\u6211\u8a8d\u70ba\u4e2d\u570b\u7684AI\u767c\u5c55\u4ecd\u7136\u975e\u5e38\u8fc5\u901f\u3002\u4f46\u662f\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u65b9\u5f0f\u8207\u6b50\u7f8e\u622a\u7136\u4e0d\u540c\u3002\u7f8e\u570b\u4ee5\u6f14\u7b97\u6cd5\u70ba\u5148\uff1b\u4e2d\u570b\u5247\u4ee5\u61c9\u7528\u5148\u884c\u3002<\/p><\/blockquote>\n<h3>\u4e2d\u570b\u6703\u5426\u6210\u70ba\u672a\u4f86\u7684AI\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\uff1f<\/h3>\n<p>\u5728AI\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u7af6\u8cfd\u4e2d\uff0c\u4e2d\u7f8e\u5169\u570b\u5747\u88ab\u8996\u70ba\u5168\u7403\u9818\u5148\u570b\u5bb6\u30022017\u5e74\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u5ba3\u5e03\u92b3\u610f\u6210\u70baAI\u7684\u4e16\u754c\u9818\u5c0e\u8005\uff0c\u73fe\u6642\u5167\u5730AI\u884c\u696d\u7684\u5e02\u503c\u5df2\u63a5\u8fd11,500\u5104\u7f8e\u5143\u3002\u6b64\u5916\uff0c\u4e2d\u570b\u70ba\u5168\u7403AI\u521d\u5275\u516c\u53f8\u63d0\u4f9b\u4e86\u6574\u9ad4\u80a1\u6b0a\u878d\u8cc7\u768448%\u3002<\/p>\n<p>\u4e2d\u570b\u5c07\u5982\u4f55\u5728AI\u7684\u767c\u5c55\u4e2d\u8207\u7f8e\u570b\u722d\u4e00\u65e5\u4e4b\u9577\u77ed\uff1f<\/p>\n<p>\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u5728\u4e0d\u4e45\u7684\u5c07\u4f86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\/>\nYu Liu, Lihong Zhang and Xiaoquan (Michael) Zhang. 2019. &#8220;Statistical Inference with Ambiguity.&#8221; (Working paper)<\/p>\n<p><span style=\"color: #ffffff;\">\u2014\u2014 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