{"id":51520,"date":"2026-05-14T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-05-14T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/?p=51520"},"modified":"2026-05-13T17:04:48","modified_gmt":"2026-05-13T09:04:48","slug":"how-to-forecast-trends-amid-uncertainty","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/how-to-forecast-trends-amid-uncertainty\/","title":{"rendered":"\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u4e0d\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u4e2d\u9810\u6e2c\u8da8\u52e2"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6578\u78bc\u4eba\u985e\u5b78\u5bb6\u5e03\u8cf4\u6069\u2027\u7d22\u5229\u65af\uff08Brian Solis\uff09 \u6307\u51fa\uff0c \u300c\u793e\u4ea4\u5a92\u9ad4\u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u662f\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u548c\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\uff0c\u800c\u4e0d\u662f\u79d1\u6280\u3002\u300d 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f9e\u793e\u6703\u5b78\u3001\u5e02\u5834\u5b78\u4e43\u81f3\u653f\u6cbb\u5b78\uff0c\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7d61\u662f\u773e\u591a\u5b78\u79d1\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u5c0d\u8c61\u3002\u5728\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7406\u89e3\u4e00\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u793e\u7fa4\u5167\u50b3\u64ad\uff0c\u6216\u4e00\u9805\u65b0\u7522\u54c1\u80fd\u5426\u7372\u5f97\u5e02\u5834\u9752\u775e\uff0c\u8b8a\u5f97\u975e\u5e38\u91cd\u8981\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-embed is-type-video is-provider-youtube wp-block-embed-youtube wp-embed-aspect-16-9 wp-has-aspect-ratio\"><div class=\"wp-block-embed__wrapper\">\n<iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"#CBKOnlinesSeries | How to forecast trends amid uncertainty?\" width=\"500\" height=\"281\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/YIQK5_F_CBc?start=34&#038;feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe>\n<\/div><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7531\u65bc\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u5f80\u5f80\u8907\u96dc\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u6e96\u78ba\u5730\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u67d0\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u6d41\u884c\uff0c\u6216\u70ba\u4f55\u67d0\u6a23\u7522\u54c1\u6703\u5728\u67d0\u500b\u793e\u7fa4\u4e2d\u77ac\u9593\u8d70\u7d05\uff0c\u537b\u5728\u53e6\u4e00\u793e\u7fa4\u4e2d\u7121\u4eba\u554f\u6d25\u3002\u70ba\u4e86\u7406\u89e3\u80cc\u5f8c\u7684\u6a5f\u5236\uff0c\u6797\u6559\u6388\u63d0\u51fa\u4ee5\u8a08\u7b97\u56fa\u5b9a\u9ede\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\uff08Fixed-point approximation\uff09 \u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u628a\u793e\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u53cd\u8986\u4e92\u52d5\u5316\u70ba\u6e05\u6670\u7684\u5716\u50cf\uff0c\u8aaa\u660e\u9019\u4e9b\u884c\u70ba\u6700\u7d42\u5982\u4f55\u5728\u6574\u500b\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7d61\u4e2d\u9054\u81f3\u7a69\u5b9a\u72c0\u614b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5979\u89e3\u91cb\u9053\uff1a\u300c\u8a66\u60f3\u50cf\u6709\u4e00\u7fa4\u4eba\u8981\u5b89\u6392\u4e00\u6b21\u805a\u6703\uff0c\u8d77\u521d\u9019\u662f\u4e00\u500b\u672a\u78ba\u5b9a\u7684\u8a08\u756b\uff0c\u56e0\u70ba\u4efb\u4f55\u4eba\u90fd\u53ef\u6539\u8b8a\u4e3b\u610f\u3002\u7576\u6709\u4eba\u78ba\u8a8d\u4ed6\u5011\u6703\u53c3\u52a0\u6642\uff0c\u4ed6\u7684\u670b\u53cb\u4fbf\u66f4\u6709\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u5e2d\uff1b\u4f46\u7576\u6709\u4eba\u78ba\u8a8d\u5f8c\u56e0\u7a81\u767c\u72c0\u6cc1\u800c\u723d\u7d04\u6642\uff0c\u4e5f\u6703\u5728\u6574\u500b\u7fa4\u9ad4\u4e2d\u5f15\u8d77\u9023\u9396\u53cd\u61c9\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300c\u300e\u56fa\u5b9a\u9ede\u300f\u662f\u6307\u5230\u4e86\u67d0\u500b\u4f4d\uff0c\u90a3\u4e9b\u5f71\u97ff\u56e0\u7d20\u7522\u751f\u4f5c\u7528\u5f8c\uff0c\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u63a5\u7d0d\u67d0\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u6703\u8da8\u65bc\u7a69\u5b9a\uff0c\u4e0d\u518d\u6539\u8b8a\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong>\u904b\u7528\u6578\u5b78\u516c\u5f0f\u9810\u6e2c\u8da8\u52e2<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5728\u984c\u70ba<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1287\/mnsc.2022.03031\">\u300a\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7d61\u4e0a\u7684\u975e\u9032\u884c\u6027\u64f4\u6563\uff1a\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u53ca\u5176\u61c9\u7528\u300b<\/a>\u7684\u7814\u7a76\u4e2d\uff0c\u6797\u6559\u6388\u8207\u540c\u7cfb\u526f\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/zhang-philip-renyu\/\">\u5f35\u4efb\u5b87<\/a>\u3001\u4e9e\u5229\u6851\u90a3\u5dde\u7acb\u5927\u5b78\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388\u7ae0\u6052\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u9999\u6e2f\u5927\u5b78\u6559\u6388\u7533\u4f5c\u8ecd\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u958b\u767c\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u904b\u7528\u78ba\u5b9a\u6027\u8b8a\u6578\u8a08\u7b97\u56fa\u5b9a\u9ede\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\u7684\u6a21\u578b\uff0c\u4ee5\u62c6\u89e3\u5145\u6eff\u4e0d\u53ef\u9810\u6e2c\u56e0\u7d20\u7684\u793e\u4ea4\u7db2\u7d61\u4e2d\u5404\u7a2e\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u7684\u4e92\u52d5\u95dc\u4fc2\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"600\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-1200x600.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-51525\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-1200x600.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-600x300.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-768x384.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-1536x768.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/iStock-1285126021-2048x1024.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u7531\u65bc\u4eba\u7684\u53cd\u61c9\u5f80\u5f80\u8907\u96dc\u4e14\u96e3\u4ee5\u9810\u6e2c\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\u6211\u5011\u5f88\u96e3\u6e96\u78ba\u89e3\u91cb\u70ba\u4f55\u67d0\u500b\u60f3\u6cd5\u6703\u7a81\u7136\u6d41\u884c\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u8a08\u7b97\u56fa\u5b9a\u9ede\u8fd1\u4f3c\u503c\uff0c\u9996\u5148\u5f9e\u5e7e\u500b\u53ef\u89e3\u91cb\u7684\u8981\u7d20\u958b\u59cb\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u7db2\u8def\u7d50\u69cb\uff08\u8ab0\u8207\u8ab0\u6709\u9023\u7e6b\uff09\u3001\u56fa\u6709\u5be6\u7528\u50f9\u503c\uff08\u5373\u5728\u672a\u53d7\u4ed6\u4eba\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u60c5\u6cc1\u4e0b\uff0c\u7db2\u7d61\u4e2d\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u5c0d\u65b0\u69cb\u601d\u7684\u597d\u60e1\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u3001\u96dc\u8a0a\u5206\u4f48\uff08\u5de6\u53f3\u4eba\u5011\u5fc3\u610f\u4f46\u7121\u8de1\u53ef\u5c0b\u7684\u56e0\u7d20\uff09\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u7db2\u7d61\u6548\u61c9\u5f37\u5ea6\uff08\u4e00\u500b\u4eba\u53d7\u5176\u4eba\u969b\u9023\u7d50\u5f71\u97ff\u7684\u654f\u611f\u7a0b\u5ea6\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u6b64\u516c\u5f0f\u5728\u6bcb\u9808\u8ffd\u8e64\u7db2\u7d61\u4e2d\u6bcf\u4e00\u500b\u53ef\u80fd\u51fa\u73fe\u7684\u9023\u9396\u53cd\u61c9\u4e4b\u4e0b\uff0c\u4f30\u7b97\u6bcf\u500b\u4eba\u5728\u540c\u8f29\u7684\u5f71\u97ff\u4e0b\u63a5\u7d0d\u67d0\u8da8\u52e2\u7684\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982\u5728\u4e00\u500b\u5c0f\u578b\u793e\u7fa4\u88cf\uff0cA \u8cfc\u8cb7\u6a5f\u7387\u70ba90%\uff0c\u800cB \u5247\u70ba30%\u3002\u9019\u6a21\u578b\u8b93\u7814\u7a76\u4eba\u54e1\u80fd\u5927\u898f\u6a21\u5730\u6355\u6349\u793e\u6703\u5f71\u97ff\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u70ba\u8655\u7406\u9019\u4e9b\u7570\u5e38\u503c\uff0c\u8ad6\u6587\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u9644\u52a0\u6b65\u9a5f\u3002\u5728\u5f97\u51fa\u4e3b\u8981\u4f30\u7b97\u7d50\u679c\u5f8c\uff0c\u6a21\u578b\u6703\u805a\u7126\u65bc\u793e\u4ea4\u5708\u5b50\u8f03\u7d30\u7684\u500b\u9ad4\uff0c\u91dd\u5c0d\u4ed6\u5011\u5708\u5b50\u4e2d\u8f03\u89aa\u8fd1\u7684\u4eba\u53ef\u80fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u5047\u8a2d\u591a\u500b\u5408\u7406\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u7136\u5f8c\u7d9c\u5408\u8a08\u7b97\u51fa\u5e73\u5747\u503c\uff0c\u5f9e\u800c\u5c31\u8a72\u500b\u9ad4\u7684\u63a5\u7d0d\u53ef\u80fd\u6027\u4f5c\u51fa\u4e00\u500b\u66f4\u7cbe\u6e96\u7684\u9810\u6e2c\u3002\u6797\u6559\u6388\u628a\u6709\u95dc\u516c\u5f0f\u653e\u5728GitHub\u5132\u5b58\u5eab\u4e2d\u4f9b\u516c\u773e\u53c3\u8003\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p 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