{"id":59673,"date":"2026-09-03T10:00:00","date_gmt":"2026-09-03T02:00:00","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/?p=59673"},"modified":"2026-09-17T19:43:07","modified_gmt":"2026-09-17T11:43:07","slug":"can-ai-really-mimic-our-decision-making","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/can-ai-really-mimic-our-decision-making\/","title":{"rendered":"AI \u771f\u7684\u80fd\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u6c7a\u7b56\u55ce\uff1f"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u73fe\u6642\u6709\u6108\u4f86\u6108\u591a\u884c\u70ba\u7814\u7a76\u63a1\u7528\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\uff08Large language models, LLM\uff09\u6a21\u64ec\u771f\u4eba\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\uff0c\u5229\u7528\u652f\u63f4ChatGPT \u7b49\u804a\u5929\u6a5f\u68b0\u4eba\u7684\u4eba\u5de5\u667a\u80fd ( AI) \u7cfb\u7d71\u4ee3\u70ba\u56de\u7b54\u554f\u5377\uff0c\u6240\u9700\u6210\u672c\u53ca\u6642\u9593\u9060\u4f4e\u65bc\u62db\u52df\u771f\u4eba\u53c3\u8207\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u505a\u6cd5\u7a31\u70ba\u300c\u5408\u6210\u8abf\u67e5\u300d\uff08Synthetic surveys\uff09\u6216\u300c\u77fd\u57fa\u62bd\u6a23\u300d\uff08silicon sampling\uff09\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u591a\u5bb6AI \u521d\u5275\u4f01\u696d\uff0c\u4f8b\u5982Simile\u3001Aaru\u3001Artificial Societies\u53caUxia \uff0c\u7d1b\u7d1b\u9032\u5165\u76f8\u95dc\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u52e2\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u504f\u597d\uff0c\u751a\u81f3\u653f\u6cbb\u53d6\u614b\u3002\u9019\u7a2e\u5408\u6210\u8abf\u67e5\u4ee5\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u5be6\u9a57\u60c5\u5883\u4e2d\u626e\u6f14\u4eba\u985e\uff0c\u662f\u793e\u6703\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\uff08social simulation\uff09\u7684\u4e00\u7a2e\u5be6\u969b\u61c9\u7528\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7136\u800c\uff0c\u9019\u985e\u61c9\u7528\u4ea6\u5b58\u5728\u4e00\u5b9a\u5c40\u9650\u3002\u6279\u8a55\u8005\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u793e\u6703\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\u672a\u5fc5\u80fd\u53ef\u9760\u5730\u53d6\u4ee3\u771f\u4eba\u53d7\u8a2a\u8005\uff0c\u56e0\u70baAI \u6709\u6642\u96e3\u4ee5\u6355\u6349\u4eba\u985e\u610f\u898b\u4e4b\u9593\u7684\u7d30\u5fae\u5dee\u7570\uff0c\u800c\u4e14\u9f90\u5927\u7684\u8a13\u7df4\u6578\u64da\u4ea6\u53ef\u80fd\u4ee4\u6a21\u578b\u7522\u751f\u504f\u898b\u3002\u96d6\u7136\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5df2\u6210\u529f\u8907\u88fd\u4e00\u4e9b\u7c21\u55ae\u7684\u5be6\u9a57\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u5be6\u9a57\u60c5\u5883\u8b8a\u5f97\u8907\u96dc\uff0c\u5247\u5f80\u5f80\u7121\u6cd5\u6e96\u78ba\u6a21\u64ec\u771f\u4eba\u884c\u70ba\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u9999\u6e2f\u4e2d\u6587\u5927\u5b78\uff08\u4e2d\u5927\uff09\u5546\u5b78\u9662\u6c7a\u7b56\u3001\u71df\u904b\u8207\u79d1\u6280\u5b78\u7cfb\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/zhang-philip-renyu\/\">\u5f35\u4efb\u5b87<\/a>\u5206\u6790\uff0c\u9019\u4e9b\u5c40\u9650\u6216\u6e90\u65bc\u66f4\u6df1\u5c64\u7684\u7d50\u69cb\u554f\u984c \u2014\u2014 \u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5c0d\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u7406\u89e3\u53ca\u63a8\u7406\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u4ed6\u8868\u793a\uff1a\u300c\u5927\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u884c\u70ba\u8207\u793e\u6703\u6a21\u64ec\u4e2d\u7684\u5931\u6557\uff0c\u4e0d\u50c5\u53ef\u80fd\u6e90\u65bc\u63a8\u7406\u932f\u8aa4\uff0c\u9084\u53ef\u80fd\u662f\u56e0\u70ba\u5b83\u5011\u672a\u80fd\u5f62\u6210\u70ba\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u6070\u7576\u7406\u89e3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\u5373\u4f7f\u5b83\u5011\u80fd\u5920\u6b63\u78ba\u7406\u89e3\u4efb\u52d9\uff0c\u63a8\u7406\u904e\u7a0b\u4e5f\u672a\u5fc5\u7b26\u5408\u4eba\u985e\u7684\u601d\u8003\u65b9\u5f0f\u3002\u300d<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u8207\u540c\u7cfb\u52a9\u7406\u6559\u6388<a href=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/staff\/jin-jenny-qianran\/\">\u91d1\u831c\u5189<\/a>\u53ca\u535a\u58eb\u751f\u5b54\u6a02\u5929\u5408\u4f5c\u9032\u884c\u7814\u7a76<a href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.48550\/arXiv.2601.01546\">\u300a\u900f\u904e\u60c5\u5883\u5efa\u69cb\u53ca\u5c0e\u5f15\u63d0\u5347\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u793e\u6703\u6a21\u64ec\u7684\u6e96\u78ba\u6027\u300b<\/a>\uff0c\u63d0\u51fa\u4e00\u5957\u300c\u5169\u968e\u6bb5\u65b9\u6cd5\u300d\uff0c\u5617\u8a66\u6539\u5584\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u80fd\u529b\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-1200x800.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59679\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-1200x800.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-3-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u591a\u5bb6AI \u521d\u5275\u4f01\u696d\u7d1b\u7d1b\u9032\u5165\u76f8\u95dc\u5e02\u5834\uff0c\u63d0\u4f9b\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u884c\u70ba\u7684\u7522\u54c1\uff0c\u9810\u6e2c\u5e02\u5834\u8da8\u52e2\u3001\u6d88\u8cbb\u8005\u504f\u597d\u3002<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong>\u66f4\u7cbe\u6e96\u7684\u63d0\u793a<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76f8\u4fe1\u4e0d\u5c11AI \u4f7f\u7528\u8005\u90fd\u9ad4\u6703\u5230\uff0c\u8981\u8b93\u6a21\u578b\u751f\u6210\u7406\u60f3\u7684\u56de\u7b54\uff0c\u6307\u4ee4\u5fc5\u9808\u6e05\u6670\u5177\u9ad4\u3002\u900f\u904e\u8a2d\u8a08\u53ca\u8abf\u6574\u63d0\u793a\u4ee5\u63d0\u5347\u6a21\u578b\u8f38\u51fa\u7684\u8cea\u7d20\uff0c\u4fbf\u662f\u300cPrompt engineering\u300d \u7684\u6838\u5fc3\u3002\u4e0d\u904e\uff0c\u5728\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u6c7a\u7b56\u548c\u884c\u70ba\u6642\uff0c\u55ae\u9760\u73fe\u6642\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u6280\u5de7\u4ecd\u6709\u4e0d\u8db3\uff0c\u56e0\u6b64\uff0c\u662f\u6b21\u7814\u7a76\u63a1\u7528\u66f4\u5168\u9762\u7684\u65b9\u6cd5\uff0c\u6e2c\u8a66\u80fd\u5426\u53d6\u5f97\u66f4\u597d\u7684\u6548\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u53ca\u5718\u968a\u53c3\u8003\u7f8e\u570b\u8a8d\u77e5\u5fc3\u7406\u5b78\u5bb6Herbert Simon\u8207Allen Newell\u7684\u7d93\u5178\u8457\u4f5c<em>Human Problem Solving <\/em>\uff0c\u501f\u9451\u7576\u4e2d\u6709\u95dc\u4eba\u985e\u5982\u4f55\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u7684\u7406\u8ad6\u3002\u5169\u4eba\u8207\u7a0b\u5f0f\u8a2d\u8a08\u5e2bCliff Shaw\u5408\u4f5c\uff0c\u5171\u540c\u958b\u767c\u51fa\u9996\u500b\u5c08\u70ba\u81ea\u52d5\u63a8\u7406\u800c\u8a2d\u8a08\u7684\u96fb\u8166\u7a0b\u5f0f\u300c\u908f\u8f2f\u7406\u8ad6\u5bb6\u300d\uff08Logic Theorist\uff09\uff0c\u662fAI \u65e9\u671f\u767c\u5c55\u7684\u91cd\u8981\u91cc\u7a0b\u7891\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Simon \u53caNewell \u8a8d\u70ba\uff0c\u4eba\u985e\u89e3\u6c7a\u554f\u984c\u6642\uff0c\u6703\u5148\u5728\u8166\u6d77\u4e2d\u5efa\u7acb\u5c0d\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u7406\u89e3\uff0c\u518d\u5f9e\u7406\u89e3\u7bc4\u570d\u5167\u5c0b\u627e\u89e3\u6c7a\u65b9\u6cd5\u3002\u53d7\u9019\u4e00\u5957\u7406\u8ad6\u555f\u767c\uff0c\u7814\u7a76\u5718\u968a\u5efa\u7acb\u5169\u968e\u6bb5\u6846\u67b6\uff0c\u8b93\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u5728\u6a21\u64ec\u4eba\u985e\u6c7a\u7b56\u53ca\u884c\u70ba\u6642\uff0c\u80fd\u4f5c\u51fa\u66f4\u8cbc\u8fd1\u771f\u4eba\u7684\u9078\u64c7\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u7b2c\u4e00\u968e\u6bb5\u662f\u300c\u60c5\u5883\u5efa\u69cb\u300d\uff08context formation \uff09\uff0c\u5373\u660e\u78ba\u4ea4\u4ee3\u5be6\u9a57\u8a2d\u8a08\uff0c\u5305\u62ec\u76ee\u6a19\u3001\u91cd\u8981\u8cc7\u8a0a\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u5404\u90e8\u5206\u5982\u4f55\u76f8\u4e92\u95dc\u806f\uff0c\u8b93\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u80fd\u5920\u7406\u89e3\u4efb\u52d9\u53ca\u5176\u80cc\u666f\u3002\u7b2c\u4e8c\u968e\u6bb5\u662f\u300c\u60c5\u5883\u5c0e\u5f15\u300d\uff08context navigation\uff09\uff0c\u900f\u904e\u5f15\u5c0e\u6a21\u578b\u9032\u884c\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u4f7f\u5176\u9032\u4e00\u6b65\u5236\u5b9a\u7b56\u7565\u3001\u66f4\u65b0\u5224\u65b7\uff0c\u4e26\u6b0a\u8861\u5404\u7a2e\u9078\u9805\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u5f35\u6559\u6388\u6307\u51fa\uff0c\u8981\u4ee4\u5927\u578b\u8a9e\u8a00\u6a21\u578b\u8868\u73fe\u5f97\u50cf\u4eba\u985e\uff0c\u9808\u6e05\u6670\u8a2d\u5b9a\u300c\u60c5\u5883\u5efa\u69cb\u300d\u53ca\u300c\u60c5\u5883\u5c0e\u5f15\u300d\u5169\u500b\u968e\u6bb5\uff0c\u8b93AI \u6e96\u78ba\u7406\u89e3\u4efb\u52d9\u53ca\u81ea\u8eab\u89d2\u8272\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading\"><strong><strong>\u8207\u5e38\u7528\u63d0\u793a\u6280\u5de7\u7684\u6bd4\u8f03<\/strong><\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u76ee\u524d\u5e38\u7528\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u6280\u5de7\u96d6\u6709\u52a9\u6539\u5584AI \u57f7\u884c\u4efb\u52d9\u7684\u8868\u73fe\uff0c\u4f46\u4e26\u975e\u5168\u90e8\u9069\u7528\u65bc\u793e\u6703\u6a21\u64ec\u7cfb\u7d71\u3002\u4f8b\u5982\uff0c\u300c\u601d\u7dad\u93c8\u300d\u63d0\u793a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08Chain-of-Thought prompting\uff09 \u5f15\u5c0eAI \u6309\u6b65\u9a5f\u9032\u884c\u63a8\u7406\uff0c\u60df\u82e5 AI \u8aa4\u89e3\u898f\u5247\u53ca\u60c5\u5883\u8a2d\u5b9a\uff0c\u5f80\u5f80\u6703\u7522\u751f\u524d\u5f8c\u4e0d\u4e00\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002\u300c\u5c11\u6a23\u672c\u63d0\u793a\u300d\uff08Few-Shot prompting\uff09\u5247\u662f\u5411AI \u6a21\u578b\u8f38\u5165\u5e7e\u500b\u7bc4\u4f8b\u8b93\u5176\u6a21\u4eff\uff0c\u4f46\u7576\u793e\u6703\u5be6\u9a57\u7684\u60c5\u5883\u8207\u7bc4\u4f8b\u5b58\u5728\u5dee\u7570\u6642\uff0c\u6240\u5f97\u7d50\u679c\u672a\u5fc5\u53ef\u9760\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">\u300c\u601d\u7dad\u6a39\u300d\u63d0\u793a\u65b9\u5f0f\uff08Tree of Thoughts prompting\uff09\u8981\u6c42 AI \u63a2\u7d22\u4e0d\u540c\u7684\u63a8\u7406\u8def\u5f91\uff0c\u518d\u5f9e\u4e2d\u9078\u64c7\u6700\u4f73\u65b9\u6848\uff0c\u537b\u7121\u6cd5\u5224\u65b7\u54ea\u4e00\u689d\u6700\u7b26\u5408\u4eba\u985e\u601d\u7dad\u6a21\u5f0f\u3002\u800c\u300c\u5143\u63d0\u793a\u300d\uff08Meta-prompting\uff09 \u5247\u900f\u904e\u8a2d\u8a08\u53ef\u91cd\u8907\u4f7f\u7528\u7684\u63d0\u793a\u4f86\u7d44\u7e54\u63a8\u7406\u904e\u7a0b\uff0c\u4f46\u4ecd\u9700\u7531\u771f\u4eba\u8a2d\u5b9a\u60c5\u5883\uff0c\u4ee5\u53ca\u754c\u5b9a\u751a\u9ebc\u624d\u662f\u6709\u6548\u7684\u7d50\u679c\u3002<\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-large\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" width=\"1200\" height=\"800\" src=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-1200x800.jpg\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-59685\" srcset=\"https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-1200x800.jpg 1200w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-600x400.jpg 600w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-768x512.jpg 768w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-1536x1024.jpg 1536w, https:\/\/www.bschool.cuhk.edu.hk\/chi\/wp-content\/uploads\/CBK-LLM-Social-Simulation-1-2048x1365.jpg 2048w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 1200px) 100vw, 1200px\" \/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">\u4e0d\u5c11AI 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