Tourism Decisions under Conditions of Risk and Uncertainty: What Have We Learned from COVID-19?

COVID-19 severely disrupted global tourism, yet it also created a unique context for advancing research on decision-making under risk and uncertainty. Funded by the Economic and Social Research Council in the UK, this project investigates how risk and uncertainty preferences shape individuals’ travel intentions and behaviours during the pandemic. Grounded in behavioural economics, the study employs a two-stage design: (1) a longitudinal survey across four waves in five countries (n = 23,250 responses) and (2) experimental research using complex decision-making models (n = 1,600). Advanced analytical techniques, including difference-in-differences with multiple time periods, underpin the analysis.

Through four sub-studies, this research delivers conceptual and methodological contributions to tourism scholarship and provides an evidence base for more accurate demand forecasting, targeted market research, and policy development for UK tourism in a medium-term landscape of risk and uncertainty. Impact has been amplified through collaboration with two major UK tourism organizations: VisitBritain and the Association of British Travel Agents.