A Preliminary Investigation on the Feasibility and Implications of the HKIA-SZA Fast Rail Link The Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR), Mr. Donald Tsang, proposed to establish a rail connection between the Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA) and the Shenzhen Airport (SZA) in the 2007-08 Policy Address. In order to allow the two airports to complement with each other and achieve a win-win situation, Mr. Tsang considered it was necessary to study the feasibility and economic benefits of the project. The two governments have formed a joint task force in early 2008 and commissioned a consultancy to carry out the study. The study is targeted for completion in late 2008. According to the statistics of the Airport Authority Hong Kong (AAHK), around 0.5 million of passengers used the ferry service at SkyPier to and from the Shenzhen Pier (Fuyong) in 2006. Even if all of these passengers were transit passengers, the number of passenger would not be large enough to support the operation of the rail connection. Assuming the construction cost of the rail connection is between HK$30 billion and HK$50 billion, the average annual growth rate of passenger is 20%, the ticket price of a single trip is HK$400, and the present ferry service to Shenzhen Pier (Fuyong) at SkyPier stops its operation, it would take 11 years to 15 years to first achieve a 3% rate of return. From our initial financial estimation, the rail connection will not be a financially viable project. Therefore, the government should explore other options for providing better linkages between HKIA and SZA. For example, smaller but faster ferries and more frequent SkyPier ferry services, coupled with improved transit services between the two airports would help significantly. AAHK has recently announced further facilities expansion at the SkyPier, costing HK$1 billion. By introducing more efficient ferry services, SkyPier should achieve a more economical solution, at a much lower cost. Furthermore, it is difficult to estimate the impact of the rail connection on each of the airport. The rail connection would provide opportunities as well as threats to HKIA. The exact location of the rail may have some bearing on the issue. If the Link is landside-located with additional stops, it should attract some more people to use it. |
However, this arrangement may largely divert passengers from other modes of prevailing transport to the Link, instead of creating new passengers. The Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong Express Rail and the Hong Kong-Shenzhen-Zhuhai Bridge may also divert demand away from the HKIA-SZA Rail Link. In addition, the improved land access of the entire PRD to Guangzhou by highways and subways in the next five years may neutralize any potential gains of the HKIA-SZA Rail Link for Hong Kong. The HKIA has been undertaking an initial feasibility study on the third runway and it is important to evaluate the necessity and benefit of the rail connection within the context of the third runway. The government should investigate whether there are any potential conflicts (e.g. land requirement and environmental concerns) between the master plans of HKIA and the rail connection. As the SZA will complete its second runway in 2011, what will be the traffic dynamics of airlines・ and passengers・ airport choices given the rail link Over time, more and more Hong Kong passengers will go to SZA directly because of its cheaper ticket prices and wider range of domestic destinations offered. There is a distinct risk for Hong Kong to lose her status as the aviation hub of Southern China and the proposed rail connection between HKIA and SZA could partly contribute to it. It is obvious that the construction of the rail connection between HKIA and SZA is not a financially viable project. The rail connection may attract more Hong Kong passengers to go to SZA directly because of the cheaper ticket prices and wider range of domestic destinations offered. This may weaken Hong Kong・s ：domestic； flights serving the Mainland and thus Hong Kong・s hub position. The government should investigate carefully if the project can really achieve a win-win situation. Furthermore, the feasibility study of the rail connection between the HKIA and SZA should go together with the master plans of HKIA, as there may have potential conflicts between them.
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