Long-Run Persistence and Interrupted Development: Evidence from Historical China

This study examines how the selection of local individuals into national government during the Ming dynasty (1368-1644) affected a region’s long-run economic development in China. I use historical floods and droughts during triennial Civil Service Examination (CSE) years as exogenous shocks to the regions’ civil exam performances. Results show that producing more officials through the exam system during the Ming dynasty enhanced the region’s contemporary economic development. Using historical data from the Qing dynasty (1645-1912) to trace the persistence, I show that the impact of Ming civil service exams tends to weaken during periods of political centralization and to re-emerge following liberalization. The Ming dynasty effects appear to persist over a long period of time and survive several changes of political regimes.